Navigating Uncharted Waters: Leadership in a VUCA World
2025 has created uncharted waters for leaders of nonprofit and philanthropic organizations. Donald Trump’s authoritarian Presidency, ongoing threats to funding, attacks on diversity, equity, and inclusion, and a bias against public and social services has meant unprecedented challenges. This context is known as a VUCA world marked by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity and requires new approaches to leadership.
Understanding the VUCA Landscape
The term VUCA was first used in the U.S. Army War College in the 1980s to describe the complex and unpredictable nature of the post-Cold War world.The VUCA framework has since been adopted by various organizations to help them understand and adapt to rapidly changing and complex environments.
The concept of VUCA helps us frame the challenges facing today's social impact leaders:
Volatility: Change is rapid, unpredictable, and disruptive. The funding landscape shifts overnight, political changes transform our friends and enemies, and tariffs threaten to push our economy into recession.
Uncertainty: The present is unclear and the future even more uncertain. Any kind of strategic decision-making feels like trying to chart a course through fog.
Complexity: Many interconnected factors come into play simultaneously, with the potential to cause chaos and confusion. Shifts in the political environment influences funders, state governments, corporations, and more.
Ambiguity: There's a fundamental lack of clarity about what's happening. We're trying to solve problems we've never encountered before, with limited information.
This environment takes a significant toll on individuals and organizations:
Sources: Managing in a VUCA World, Simon Bell, MindTools; Emotional Challenges in a VUCA World: Coping with Stress, Guilt, and Grief, Flourishing Minds Clinic, December 10, 2023
Leading Through VUCA
So how can leaders navigate a VUCA environment? Bob Johansen of The Institute for the Future created VUCA Prime, which suggests that leaders should focus on Vision, Understanding, Clarity, and Agility to lead through challenges.
Vision counters Volatility: Focus on a shared North Star—your mission and values. Set flexible goals that you can amend when needed, but keep your ultimate purpose clear.
Understanding addresses Uncertainty: Gather information to build insight. Scenario planning and crisis planning are essential navigation tools. As one Executive Director recently told me, "We are building multiple contingency plans for every major decision."
Clarity combats Complexity: Communicate clearly and consistently. Create opportunities for collaboration across teams and organizations. Break down silos that prevent coordination exactly when it's most needed.
Agility answers Ambiguity: Emphasize flexibility and adaptability. Plan ahead, but be prepared to adjust your sails as the winds change. This might mean making difficult decisions about what to preserve and what to let go.
Leading Through the Storm
Leaders should adjust their style as they lead through the storm.
Focus on what's within your control. The Circles of Control, Influence, and Concern were popularized by Stephen Covey. Help your team identify what's within their direct control, where they can exercise influence, and what is a concern but outside of their control.
Communicate, communicate, communicate. Familiar maps no longer apply so it's incredibly important to communicate about what you are seeing, what you don’t know, and what hidden dangers hide beneath the surface.
Navigation requires new tools. Traditional goal setting needs to evolve - even if you just set your organization’s goals in January. Set expectations that goals will be more adaptive and that staff should build flexibility into programs and operations to respond to external forces.
Engage a skilled crew. CEOs and Executive Directors feel the burden and loneliness of making difficult decisions in VUCA periods. Don’t go it alone. Prepare for shifts with rapid response teams, legal support, and board engagement.
Lighten the ship during the storm. The current political context is likely to cause chaos for the next few years, so you need to shore up for the long haul. This might mean making difficult decisions about what to preserve and what to let go in the organization. Beloved programs may no longer be the right fit given the environment, and the sooner those decisions are made, the easier it will be to guide the ship.
Moving Forward Together
I recently spoke with a nonprofit CEO who told me, "The hardest part is maintaining our internal compass when everything around us is spinning."
This captures the core challenge of leadership during crises. External circumstances are beyond our control, but how we respond to them, how we support our teams, and how we maintain focus on our mission—these things remain within our circle of influence.
The coming months will continue to be critical for social impact leaders. We must acknowledge the reality of our VUCA world, adjust our leadership approaches, and create new maps so we can navigate these turbulent waters.